Mailbag: Jays a serious contender?
01/23/2006I live in the U.K., but love Canada and I'm into baseball and follow the Blue Jays. I have promised my wife we'd come over to Canada again to see the Jays when they are in playoffs. Should I be saving up for this October?-- Kevin S., Lincoln, United Kingdom
I wouldn't plan on booking that long flight with your wife to Toronto just yet. The Blue Jays have plenty of hurdles to overcome before the playoffs. It's not out of the realm of possibilities, though.
Toronto's major areas needing improvement have been addressed this offseason. General manager J.P. Ricciardi strengthened the rotation and bullpen with starter A.J. Burnett and closer B.J. Ryan. He also went out and acquired first baseman Lyle Overbay and slugging third baseman Troy Glaus to help add the missing pop to the order. If all four players can avoid the injury bug and perform to their abilities, the Jays will have a solid team that's capable of contending.
The Yankees and Red Sox are still going to be there, though. They have been for the last decade, and that's not going to change in 2006. I believe that New York is still the favorite in the East, but Toronto may have weakened the Yanks' grip on the division. If the Blue Jays can make a serious run for second place, the Wild Card could be a realistic goal. Toronto will probably also have teams outside the division, such as the Indians, White Sox, A's or Angels, to contend with for the Wild Card -- depending on how the division races pan out.
Center field is strong with Vernon Wells, but Alex Rios' power is questionable and his hitting is inconsistent. Almost the same thing can be said of both Frank Catalanotto and Reed Johnson. Are there any immediate plans in adding to the outfield? If not, do you think those three will be able to contribute on a regular basis?-- Jeff W., Hamilton, Ontario
Toronto appears to be content with its outfielders right now. That's not saying the Jays wouldn't consider adding a left or right fielder before the trade deadline in July. But it looks like the Opening Day roster is set in that area.
Wells remains as an offensive weapon and has proven himself in center field by capturing consecutive Gold Glove Awards. Who will be standing in the spots on either side of him will probably vary.
Due to the crowd of infielders, Toronto is considering trying left-handed hitter Eric Hinske in left field. The Jays like what he did against right-handed pitchers (.283 average, 11 homers) last year and want him to get at-bats in the lineup -- it just won't be as a first baseman, third baseman or designated hitter all that often.
Catalanotto, who bats from the left side, will probably move over to right when Hinske is in left field. That leaves Johnson and Rios as the right-handed options against left-handed pitchers.
If any of those players is struggling, the depth allows manager John Gibbons to play the hot hands. None of the four is a stride above the others. Catalanotto led the team in average, and Toronto still feels Rios has potential to improve on his home run totals -- he jumped from one homer in 2004 to 10 in '05. But that doesn't mean the team will stick with just those two guys on a daily basis. It'll depend on which pitcher is on the mound for the other team.
What do you think the batting order will be?-- Eric B., Aurora, Ontario
The only part of the batting order that I can see being the same consistently is the No. 3-6 spots. Those holes will probably be filled by Wells, Glaus, Overbay and Shea Hillenbrand.
Gibbons will probably test a variety of combinations against different types of opposing pitchers.
Considering the outfield situation I explained above, here is what I would predict as two options: Johnson, Aaron Hill, Wells, Glaus, Overbay, Hillenbrand, Rios, switch-hitting Gregg Zaun and Russ Adams in that order against left-handers; and Adams, Catalanotto, Wells, Glaus, Overbay, Hillenbrand, Hinske, Zaun and Hill versus right-handers.
I like Johnson leading off rather than Adams against lefties because he had a higher average (.279) and on-base percentage (.335) against such starters. Adams hit .195 with a .307 on-base percentage versus left-handers. Besides, Johnson spent some of his time as a leadoff hitter a year ago.
Nothing here is for certain, either. This is just what I would predict at this point. A lot could change during Spring Training, and you never know who could go down with an injury. I think the only thing that's certain is that the Jays will try a few lineups until they find what fits best.
With the rotation pretty much carved in stone, where does that leave Scott Downs? I thought he did a good job as a starter. Is he better suited to be a long reliever?-- Matt A., Barrie, Ontario
Nothing is carved into stone in January. Downs could always squeeze into the starting rotation if something happens to another starter. That's one of the upsides to having Downs on the roster. Yes, he is slated to be a long reliever, but he also gives the club a nice option if it ever needed him to help the rotation.
Josh Towers and Gustavo Chacin were workhorses last year and put up very impressive numbers when Roy Halladay and Ted Lilly hit the disabled list. Whether Towers can match his career year or Chacin can build on his solid rookie performance are two issues facing the rotation. If both of them turn in strong campaigns, count on Downs working predominantly out of the bullpen. If someone is struggling in the rotation, I don't think that using Downs is out of the question.
As far as Downs being better as a starter or reliever, he put up nearly identical numbers between the roles last season. He pitched 13 games out of the bullpen and 13 as a starter. Downs had a 4.30 ERA as a member of the rotation and a 4.32 ERA as a reliever. The only statistic really different is strikeouts per nine innings. As a starter, he fanned 7.83 per nine innings, but he struck out 5.40 on average out of the 'pen. Overall, though, Downs was consistent in his results in both capacities.
Source: http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home