Toronto Blue Jays @ Bare Baseball - Baseball MLB Blog

Mailbag: How deep is the rotation?

01/16/2006
With the injury to Roy Halladay last year and A.J. Burnett undergoing Tommy John surgery a few years ago, what will the Jays do if something happens to one, or both, of these guys?-- Matt B., Toronto
Well, Matt, part of the answer rests with the first part of your question.
Think back to the events following Halladay's injury. When he had his left tibia broken by a line drive off the bat of Texas' Kevin Mench, Toronto had a few options already within the big-league club. Pitchers Pete Walker, Scott Downs, Dustin McGowan and Dave Bush all were counted on throughout the year to help fill the void left by Halladay and left-hander Ted Lilly, who was sidelined for a month with biceps tendinitis.
It's been two seasons since Burnett's elbow ligament replacement surgery, and he appeared in a career-high 32 games last season. All indications are that Halladay, Lilly and Burnett will be healthy for the 2006 season. But you're right, nothing is ever 100 percent certain and no one knows what could happen in Spring Training or during the season.
If any of the Jays' starters go down with an injury, Walker, Downs and McGowan will be in the fold to help out. That trio had 24 starts among them in '05 and will probably battle for rights to a bullpen job for Opening Day this year. Walker and McGowan were both better out of the bullpen, and Downs was inconsistent in both roles. McGowan is still viewed as a starter for the future. His 0.85 ERA out of the 'pen last season could convince Toronto to inch him along as a long reliever before he makes the transition to the rotation, though.
Bush is no longer an option, as he was dealt to Milwaukee in the trade that brought first baseman Lyle Overbay to the Blue Jays.
The bright side to this season is that signing Burnett acts as insurance against this type of scenario. Last year, Toronto had Halladay, Lilly, Josh Towers and Gustavo Chacin as the top four starters, with Bush, Downs, Walker and McGowan filling in as needed. Adding Burnett gives the Blue Jays a solid five-man group and takes some pressure off the other pitchers who might have to plug a hole in the rotation now and then.
Starting pitching is the most important aspect of every baseball team, and the Jays' rotation seems to be shaping up nicely. Are you convinced that the Towers that we saw in the second half of last season is the real deal?-- David S., Sarnia, Ontario
If Towers showed Toronto one thing last season, it was that he could step up when the team needed him. When Halladay and Lilly were hurt, Towers and young left-hander Chacin kept the Blue Jays from collapsing.
Towers notched career bests in wins (13), ERA (3.71), starts (33), complete games (two), strikeouts (112) and innings (208 2/3). He ranked 12th in the American League in ERA and tied with Chacin for the team lead in wins. In one stretch from late July to early September, Towers had 12 consecutive quality starts (at least six innings pitched and three or fewer earned runs allowed). In that period, he went 6-3 with a 2.44 ERA.
All that success can be attributed to Towers' improved location. His walk totals -- he allowed just 10 free passes in 105 innings after the All-Star break -- were well below his numbers in 2004. He had nearly four strikeouts for every walk issued, and he did this with more of a finesse approach. Towers did allow more hits than all but one AL pitcher, but that indicates that he wasn't trying to pitch around hitters. Besides, Towers has learned to trust the defense behind him, as he has been able to force more groundouts than he did early in his career.
Towers' success in 2006 will be dependent upon similar mechanics. If he can continue to pound the strike zone with the same consistency, he'll get the outs and log the innings. Barring injury, I think Towers can meet his performance from a year ago. If he can finish the year anywhere close to how he pitched in '05, that will undoubtedly help Toronto's push for playoff contention.
I know you are aware of the performances of Alex Rios and Guillermo Quiroz in Winter League play, but how about Spike Lundberg? In the first round of the playoffs, he won two starts and saved the last game as a reliever, driving the Guasave Cotton Growers to the semifinals. Is he worth a non-roster invitation?-- Fernando E., Culiacan, Mexico
Thanks for the message, Fernando. It's good to see that the Toronto fan base stretches beyond two borders. You're absolutely right about Lundberg in the Mexcian Pacific League. He has been lights-out all winter and has carried it over into the playoffs.
The right-hander went 9-3 with a 2.23 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 13 starts in the regular season for Guasave. Lundberg also had three complete games and pitched 92 2/3 innings. He ranked first in the league in wins and ERA, finished second in strikeouts and complete games, and he ranked third in innings.
During the playoffs, Lundberg has gone 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA in four appearances through Jan. 11. He won two games in the first round and picked up the series-clinching save in Game 6 against Mochis. Lundberg kept his hot hand going in the semifinals with a complete-game shutout win in the first game against Hermosilla.
That's a lot of success so far this winter for Lundberg, a 29-year-old who has toiled away in the Minors for nine years. He signed a Minor League contract with Toronto in November 2004 with an invitation to attend Spring Training. He made only two appearances that spring before being reassigned to Triple-A Syracuse. With the SkyChiefs, Lundberg was 8-6 with a 3.95 ERA in 50 games -- only three as a starter.
If Lundberg has any shot of making Toronto's Major League roster this season, it'll probably be as a reliever. He has not yet been extended a non-roster invitation to attend Spring Training with Toronto for a second straight year, though. That doesn't mean he won't be given that opportunity. Last year, the Jays handed out invites as late as Feb. 21.
Toronto currently has 56 players attending Spring Training, including 17 non-roster invitees: left-handed pitchers Matt Blank, Adrian Burnside, David Purcey and Ricky Romero; right-handers Lee Gronkiewicz, Casey Janssen, Ty Taubenheim and Weber; catchers Robinzon Diaz, Erik Kratz, Mike Mahoney, Jason Phillips and Curtis Thigpen; infielders Kevin Barker and Luis Figuero; and outfielders Wayne Lydon and Chad Mottola.
I have read that the Jays' payroll is around $70 million. How can this be when players such as Shea Hillenbrand, Ted Lilly and others are eligible for arbritration? How much money is guaranted in 2007 and to which players?-- Doug F., St. Catharines, Ontario
The Blue Jays have roughly $60 million tied up in guaranteed contracts for the 2006 season. Hillenbrand, Lilly, Overbay, Downs and Walker are all eligible for salary arbitration, and their contracts are estimated to put the payroll up around $70 million. Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi has said that last total is where the payroll currently stands -- taking the guaranteed contracts and the possible arbitration results into account.
The guaranteed salaries for '06 are as follows: Halladay, $12.7 million; third baseman Troy Glaus, $9 million; Burnett, $7 million; left-hander B.J. Ryan, $8 million; infielder Eric Hinske, $4.325 million; center fielder Vernon Wells, $4.3 million; Towers, $2.3 million; left-hander Scott Schoeneweiss, $2.75 million; outfielder Frank Catalanotto, $2.7 million; right-hander Justin Speier, $2.25 million; outfielder Reed Johnson, $1.425 million; catcher Gregg Zaun, $1 million; and shortstop John McDonald, $500,000.
Toronto is also responsible for around half of the $5.25 million salary of third baseman Corey Koskie, who was traded to Milwaukee.
With Ricciardi already announcing that the Jays' payroll ceiling for this season will be around $75 million, will the payroll be similar next season, or will it increase to allow the Jays to go after another big free agent next year?-- Mike M., Halifax, Nova Scotia
As of now, the Blue Jays have slightly more than $60 million tied up in guaranteed contracts for the 2007 season. And that is not counting Schoeneweis, Catalanotto, Speier, Johnson, Zaun or McDonald, who are all signed through '06.
When Toronto owner Ted Rogers gave Ricciardi $210 million of extra payroll last February, that was for the 2005-07 seasons. Around $50 million of that was tied to last year's squad and an estimated $75 million will be allotted for this season's group. That leaves an approximate payroll of $85 million for 2007. If the payroll does reach that, it will be the largest sum in team history.
What were Toronto's attendance numbers like last year? What should be expected in 2006? What do you believe is a good average in Toronto?-- Jean-Marc G., Cornwall, Ontario
Last season, the Blue Jays had 2,014,995 fans go through the turnstiles at the Rogers Centre. That was an average of 24,876 per game. Both totals were small achievements for Toronto. The Jays hadn't topped 2 million or had an average attendance that high since 1999.
The projections for the 2006 season are even better. The busy offseason has stirred interest, and ticket sales are improving at an increasing rate. When Toronto finalized the trade for slugger Troy Glaus on Dec. 27, ticket sales were 25 percent higher than at the same point the previous year. Rob Godfrey, the Jays' senior vice president, told the Toronto Sun last week that sales had jumped by 46 percent over last year's totals at that time.
Having another 2 million people come to Toronto's games this upcoming season would be another small victory. The Blue Jays haven't had consecutive seasons with that many fans in attendance since 1998-99. That was at the end of a string of 15 straight seasons with at least 2 million in the seats.
From 1985-98, Toronto drew an average of at least 30,000 per game. Included in that streak was an average of at least 50,000 from 1993-94. The Blue Jays topped 4 million fans per year from 1991-93, when Toronto was a top-tier team and took home two World Series titles. Those kinds of numbers sound impossible now and may never happen again. For now, the Jays would be thrilled to draw 30,000 per contest -- almost 2.5 million total.
Attendance for Toronto, which is much more of a hockey town than a baseball town, is best compared to teams like Minnesota, Detroit or Colorado. The Twins drew 2 million last year for the first time since '93, the Tigers have drawn 2 million only twice in 17 seasons, and the Rockies have had steadily decreasing numbers that finally dipped below 2 million last year. Toronto has also experienced much more success than a team like Florida, which drew just over 1 million fans in 2003 -- the year the Marlins beat the Yankees in the World Series.

Source: http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/

posted by David @ 5:56 AM